Bihar Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2025 – Pre-Poll And Exit Polls
Want to know Bihar opinion poll 2025? Here is the Bihar election opinion poll conducted by various agencies including ABP-CVoter, Times Now-CVoter Survey. Read on to find vote share projection, party and region wise prediction for Bihar election 2025.
Exit polls are out post-election and we will update the data once they are announced. Keep checking back
Bihar Opinion Poll 2025 – Alliance-Wise Prediction
| Polling Agency | NDA Seats | Mahagathbandhan (INDIA Bloc) Seats | Jan Suraaj Seats | Others Seats | Poll Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IANS–Matrize | 140–150 | 75–90 | 2–5 | 3–4 | October 5, 2025 |
| C-Voter (Economic Times) | 125–135 | 95–105 | 10–15 | 3–5 | October 2, 2025 |
| NewsX Survey | 145–155 | 80–90 | 5–10 | 2–3 | October 5, 2025 |
| TimesNow–ETG Research | 135–145 | 90–100 | 5–8 | 2–4 | October 7, 2025 |
| India TV–C-Voter Pulse Poll | 130–140 | 95–105 | 5–8 | 2–4 | October 9, 2025 |
| Capital TV “Mood Check” Poll | 160–165 | 63–68 | 12–17 | — | October 19, 2025 |
| ISAS (Singapore) | 125+ | 100–110 | 3–5 | 5–10 | October 20, 2025 |
Key Insights – Bihar Pre-Poll
- The NDA (BJP–JD(U) alliance) ranges between 125 to 165 seats, strongly leading in all polls.
- The Mahagathbandhan (RJD–INC–Left) lags with 63 to 110 seats, depending on regional turnout strength.
- Jan Suraaj, led by Prashant Kishor, consistently shows 4–10 seats, suggesting a rising but limited base.
- Independent or smaller parties such as AIMIM, VIP, and HAM collectively capture 3–10 seats across polls.
Bihar Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2025 – Party-Wise Prediction
Key Insights – Bihar Pre-Poll
- The NDA (BJP + JD(U) + allies) is projected around 145–160 seats total, holding a 46–49 % vote share.
- The Mahagathbandhan (RJD + INC + Left + VIP) averages 75–90 seats with a 36–41 % vote share.
- Jan Suraaj is showing a consistent 8–11 % vote share, translating to 4–6 seats, with growing youth support.
- Minor parties such as AIMIM and BSP collectively stay below 5 seats, focusing on regional bases in Seemanchal and western Bihar
Here is the party-wise Chief Minister (CM) preference table for the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections, combining data from the latest opinion polls conducted by IANS–Matrize, C-Voter, and India Today–C Voter between October 2 – 10, 2025.
Bihar Opinion Poll 2025- Preferred CM Candidate
| CM Candidate | Party / Alliance | Popularity (%) | Polling Agency | Poll Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tejashwi Yadav | Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) / Mahagathbandhan | 36.5 % – 38 % | C-Voter / India Today | Oct 9 – 10 2025 |
| Nitish Kumar | Janata Dal (United) / NDA | 35.6 % – 42 % | IANS–Matrize / ABP News / Ink Insight | Oct 5 – 7 2025 |
| Prashant Kishor | Jan Suraaj Party | 9 % – 23.2 % | C-Voter / India Today / ABP News | Oct 5 – 10 2025 |
| Chirag Paswan | Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) | 4.6 % – 8.8 % | C-Voter / Ink Insight / ABP News | Oct 5 – 7 2025 |
| Samrat Choudhary | Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) | 3 % – 5 % | IANS–Matrize / ABP News | Oct 5 2025 |
| Upendra Kushwaha | Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) | 1 % | IANS–Matrize / NDTV | Oct 5 2025 |
| Giriraj Singh | Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) | 1 % | IANS–Matrize | Oct 5 2025 |
| Others / Undecided | Independent / No Preference | 8 % – 17 % | C-Voter / ABP News / India Today | Oct 2025 |
Key Insights
- Tejashwi Yadav (RJD) leads overall as the most preferred CM face, with 36 – 38 percent support.
- Nitish Kumar (JD‑U) remains highly competitive, securing 35 – 42 percent, largely due to NDA’s governance rating.
- Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj continues to rise, averaging 9 – 23 percent preference among young and urban voters.
- Chirag Paswan gains momentum among Dalit and Seemanchal constituencies, crossing the 5 percent mark for the first time.
- Samrat Choudhary, Kushwaha, and Giriraj Singh together account for less than 6 percent preference, reflecting consolidation around Nitish and Tejashwi as principal CM contenders.
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