Bihar Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2025 – Pre-Poll And Exit Polls
Want to know Bihar opinion poll 2025? Here is the Bihar election opinion poll conducted by various agencies including ABP-CVoter, Times Now-CVoter Survey. Read on to find vote share projection, party and region wise prediction for Bihar election 2025.
Exit polls are out around 6.30 today and we will update the data once they are announced. Keep checking back
Here’s a clean, ready-to-publish short article version — no links, concise, and expanded with more polling agencies and TV networks:
Bihar Election 2025 Exit Polls
| Agency / Channel | Time (IST) | NDA (Seats) | Mahagathbandhan (Seats) | Others / JSP (Seats) | Party-wise / Vote-share notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matrize (IANS / also carried by Republic/HT) | ~6:36–7:23 pm | 147–167 | 70–90 | ~2–10 | Party-wise (as shown by HT): BJP 65–73, JD(U) 67–75, RJD 53–58, INC 10–12, LJP(RV) 7–9, JSP 5, RLM 1–2, VIP 1–4, Left 9–14. |
| People’s Pulse | ~6:26–6:44 pm | 133–159 | 75–101 | 2–13 | Vote-share (reported in live coverage): NDA ~46.2%, MGB ~37.9%, JSP ~9.7%. |
| People’s Insight / Polstrat | ~6:31–7:12 pm | 133–148 | 87–102 | 3–6 | Party-wise (HT): NDA — BJP 68–72, JD(U) 55–60, LJP 9–12, HAM 1–2, RLM 0–2; MGB — RJD 65–72, INC 9–13, Left 11–14, VIP 2–3. |
| Times Now – JVC / ETG Research | ~6:54 pm | 135–150 | 88–103 | 3–7 | Alliance-wise only in first cut. |
| Dainik Bhaskar | ~6:42–7:08 pm | 145–160 | 73–91 | 5–10 | Alliance-wise; echoed across multiple live blogs. |
| P-Marq | ~6:51–7:28 pm | 142–162 | 80–98 | 0–4 | Party-wise snippet (HT): BJP 68–78, JD(U) 62–72, RJD 63–79, INC 9–19, JSP 1–4; others listed. |
| Chanakya Strategies (News24 / Today’s Chanakya) | ~7:13–7:40 pm | 130–138 | 100–108 | 3–5 | Alliance-wise; carried by multiple outlets. |
| TIF Research | ~8:00 pm | 145–163 | 76–95 | 3–6 | Listed on ABP’s live exit-poll hub. |
| PRAJA Poll Analytics | ~8:00 pm | ~186 | ~50 | ~7 | Outlier vs pack; listed on ABP’s live hub. |
| Journo Mirror | 8:07 pm | 100–110 | 130–140 | 3–7 | Contrarian outlier showing MGB ahead (rare among polls). |
Key Insights
- Majority Mark: 122 seats (Total 243)
- Most exit polls place the NDA between 130–165 seats, showing a consistent lead.
- The Mahagathbandhan ranges roughly 70–105 seats, trailing across agencies.
- Others / Third Front projected 2–13 seats, largely Jan Suraaj, AIMIM, and Independents.
- Outlier: PRAJA Poll Analytics gives NDA an exceptionally high figure (~186 seats).
Bihar Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2025 – Alliance-Wise Prediction
| Poll Date | Agency | NDA Seats | NDA Vote % | Mahagathbandhan (MGB) Seats | MGB Vote % | Jan Suraaj Seats | Jan Suraaj Vote % | Others Seats | Others Vote % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2 2025 | C-Voter (Economic Times) | 125 – 135 | 45 %* | 95 – 105 | 39 %* | 10 – 15 | 8 %* | 3 – 5 | ~8 %* |
| Oct 5 2025 | IANS – Matrize | 140 – 150 | 46 %* | 75 – 90 | 37 %* | 2 – 5 | 7 %* | 3 – 4 | ~10 % |
| Oct 5 2025 | NewsX Survey | 145 – 155 | 49 % | 80 – 90 | 36 % | 5 – 10 | — | 2 – 3 | — |
| Oct 7 2025 | Times Now – ETG Research | 135 – 145 | 47 %* | 90 – 100 | 38 %* | 5 – 8 | 8 %* | 2 – 4 | ~7 % |
| Oct 9 2025 | India TV – C-Voter Pulse Poll | 130 – 140 | 45 %* | 95 – 105 | 39 %* | 5 – 8 | 8 %* | 2 – 4 | ~8 % |
| Oct 19 2025 | Capital TV “Mood Check” | 160 – 165 | 49 %* | 63 – 68 | 36 %* | 12 – 17 | 10 %* | — | ~5 % |
| Oct 20 2025 | ISAS (Singapore) | 125 + | 44 %* | 100 – 110 | 40 %* | 3 – 5 | 8 %* | 5 – 10 | ~8 % |
| Oct 25 2025 | Financial Express Round-Up | — | 46 – 49 % | — | 36 – 41 % | — | 8 % | — | 5 – 9 % |
| Oct 25 2025 | NDTV Election Analysis | — | 41 – 46 % | — | 36 – 40 % | — | ~8 % | — | 6 – 10 % |
| Oct 25 2025 | Opinions & Ratings Average | — | 45.4 % | — | 38.9 % | — | 8.6 % | — | ~7 % |
| Oct 8 2025 | Vote Vibe (“Mood of Bihar”) | — | (very close) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 1 2025 | JVC Poll / Times Now | 120 – 140 | 41 – 43 %* | 93 – 112 | ~36 – 38 %* | — | — | — | — |
| Nov 2025 (Est.) | POLSTRAT / People’s Insight (Seats only) | 133 – 143 | — | 93 – 102 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oct 2025 (Est.) | Vote Vibe (Mood Gap) (Vote gap only) | — | NDA ahead by ~1.6 % | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Key Insights – Bihar Pre-Poll Landscape (Updated Nov 2025)
- NDA (BJP + JD(U) + allies) remains ahead across most pre-polls, with seat projections ranging 120–165 and vote share 44 – 47 %.
- The MGB (RJD + INC + Left) coalition retains 63–112 seats, reflecting consolidation in its core base but limited expansion.
- Jan Suraaj (Prashant Kishor) averages 3–10 seats, 7–9 % vote share, acting more as a regional disruptor than contender.
- Smaller parties (AIMIM, VIP, HAM, etc.) together hold 2–10 seats, with localized influence in Seemanchal and Magadh.
- New November polls (POLSTRAT / People’s Insight) still place the NDA comfortably ahead, though Vote Vibe data show a narrowing gap (~1.6 %), suggesting possible volatility in late-campaign phases.
- Overall average (as of Nov 2025): NDA ≈ 45 %, MGB ≈ 39 %, Jan Suraaj ≈ 8 %, Others ≈ 7 %.
Bihar Assembly Election Opinion Poll 2025 – Party-Wise Prediction
Here is the party-wise Chief Minister (CM) preference table for the 2025 Bihar Assembly Elections, combining data from the latest opinion polls conducted by IANS–Matrize, C-Voter, and India Today–C Voter between October 2 – 25, 2025.
| Party | Predicted Seats | Vote Share | Poll Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) | 80 – 85 | 21% | IANS–Matrize |
| Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] | 60 – 65 | 18% | IANS–Matrize |
| Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) | 4 – 6 | 6% | IANS–Matrize |
| Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) | 3 – 6 | 2% | IANS–Matrize |
| Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) | 1 – 2 | 2% | IANS–Matrize |
| Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) | 60 – 65 | 21% | IANS–Matrize ; JVC |
| Indian National Congress (INC) | 7 – 10 | 8% | IANS–Matrize |
| CPI(ML)L + CPI + CPI(M) | 6 – 11 | 4–5% (combined) | IANS–Matrize |
| Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) | 2 – 4 | 1% | IANS–Matrize |
| All India Majlis‑e‑Ittehad‑ul Muslimeen (AIMIM) | 1–3 (4 SPICK Media) | 1% | SPICK Media Network |
| Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) | 1 | — | SPICK Media Network |
| Jan Suraaj (Prashant Kishor) | 4–6 | 8–11% | IANS–Matrize ; JVC |
| Others (Independents/Minor Groups) | 2–3 | — | Consolidated Poll Average |
Key Insights – Bihar Pre-Poll
- The NDA (BJP + JD(U) + allies) is projected around 145–160 seats total, holding a 46–49 % vote share.
- The Mahagathbandhan (RJD + INC + Left + VIP) averages 75–90 seats with a 36–41 % vote share.
- Jan Suraaj is showing a consistent 8–11 % vote share, translating to 4–6 seats, with growing youth support.
- Minor parties such as AIMIM and BSP collectively stay below 5 seats, focusing on regional bases in Seemanchal and western Bihar
Vote Share
| Party/Alliance | Vote Share (%) |
|---|---|
| NDA (BJP + JD(U) + Allies) | 46 – 49 |
| Mahagathbandhan (RJD + Congress + Allies) | 36 – 41 |
| Jan Suraj Party | 8 |
| Others (BSP, AIMIM, etc.) | 5 – 15 |
Bihar Opinion Poll 2025- Preferred CM Candidate
| CM Candidate | Party / Alliance | Popularity (%) | Polling Agency | Poll Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tejashwi Yadav | Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) / Mahagathbandhan | 36.5 % – 38 % | C-Voter / India Today | Oct 9 – 10 2025 |
| Nitish Kumar | Janata Dal (United) / NDA | 35.6 % – 42 % | IANS–Matrize / ABP News / Ink Insight | Oct 5 – 7 2025 |
| Prashant Kishor | Jan Suraaj Party | 9 % – 23.2 % | C-Voter / India Today / ABP News | Oct 5 – 10 2025 |
| Chirag Paswan | Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) | 4.6 % – 8.8 % | C-Voter / Ink Insight / ABP News | Oct 5 – 7 2025 |
| Samrat Choudhary | Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) | 3 % – 5 % | IANS–Matrize / ABP News | Oct 5 2025 |
| Upendra Kushwaha | Rashtriya Lok Morcha (RLM) | 1 % | IANS–Matrize / NDTV | Oct 5 2025 |
| Giriraj Singh | Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) | 1 % | IANS–Matrize | Oct 5 2025 |
| Others / Undecided | Independent / No Preference | 8 % – 17 % | C-Voter / ABP News / India Today | Oct 2025 |
Key Insights
- Tejashwi Yadav (RJD) leads overall as the most preferred CM face, with 36 – 38 percent support.
- Nitish Kumar (JD‑U) remains highly competitive, securing 35 – 42 percent, largely due to NDA’s governance rating.
- Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj continues to rise, averaging 9 – 23 percent preference among young and urban voters.
- Chirag Paswan gains momentum among Dalit and Seemanchal constituencies, crossing the 5 percent mark for the first time.
- Samrat Choudhary, Kushwaha, and Giriraj Singh together account for less than 6 percent preference, reflecting consolidation around Nitish and Tejashwi as principal CM contenders.
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